We hear of lockdowns and restrictions being implemented again; however, Aviation insiders stated a continuous increase in demand by passengers and a substantial number of flights increased by Airlines before this wave. Well, DGCA says that the total passenger carried in March 2020 was 77.62 (Lacs) and in February 2021 were 78.27 (Lacs) (still awaiting March/ April figures); yes, we could by the data state that a significant recovery had happened. However, the real question is how does this affect the re-hiring of staff?
Well, a more straightforward and logical way is to compare apples to apples.
Hence, let us take the North American Aviation sector. Why that region, you ask? First, a massive domestic market like the Indian Sector, but then why not China, because China's pandemic effect and its recovery have been a giant mystery to all. Compared to what the world faces, China was in and out of the pandemic in a jiffy! Hence North America.
Moreover, even with the daily CoVid Cases in the States and India, there is a similarity. In the first wave, America peaked at around 70k cases a day, and in the much fraught second wave, the cases jumped to nearly 300k a day! Sounds familiar?
In the UK as well, when the first vaccine was approved on the 8th of December there was merry, however, there was a new variant and UK closed down for Christmas and New Years.
However, what was brewing in the background? Widespread vaccinations!
Hence, with vaccinations continuing, the wave came under control leading to restrictions being largely lifted. With a damning number of deaths in the UK, the vaccinations got the virus under control and on 18th May UK is open to international flights without restrictions. It resulted in news floating around the industry regarding Airlines in the States calling back their staff, especially pilots! (Link for the Article below) Delta Airlines recently reported that it had to cancel 100 flights due to a shortage of staff. Clearly, no one in Delta Airlines expected a revival that quick!
Nevertheless, you question our deemed similarities between these “Developed” countries and our Indian situation?
OK
Let's look at it objectively.
Indians responded to the vaccination programs and the subsequent lifting of restrictions positively, with news of passenger numbers increasing and what not. Hence, we can be confident that the passengers would return once things are normalized.
Secondly, the current cases are making record high with 250k a day, hence implementing restrictions again. However, this is where the similarity comes. The same happened in the US with their ‘Freight Train’ of cases and the UK! However, vaccinations were still going on rampantly! India reached 100 million vaccinations in 85 days, faster than the US, which was at 102 days!
Hence, I believe we are going through a deadly second wave similar to other countries. However, the fundamentals have not changed! Widespread vaccinations are happening, and we will come out of this wave sooner than later. When the virus comes in control this time, and a large population is vaccinated, the demand for flying would be overbearing for the airlines to meet. Hence, be prepared for positive news from the industry soon!
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